Did Iran launch a plot against the US?

12th October 2011

Link reblogged from gary's choices with 86 notes

Did Iran launch a plot against the US? →

At the link is the text of an affidavit accusing Iran of organizing a hit on the Saudi Ambassador in Washington. I find this very hard to believe. In fact, this plot, if true, departs from all known Iranian policies and procedures.

To be sure, Iran has plenty of reasons to be angry at both the United States and Saudi Arabia. They attribute the recent wave of assassinations of physics professors and students, as well as the intrusion of the Stuxnet worm, to the US and Israel. And the king of Saudi Arabia is reliably reported to have called for the US to bomb Iran.

Iran has reportedly been involved in past assassinations in Europe and bombings in Argentina and elsewhere. But the assassinations were of Iranian counter-revolutionaries in the 1980s, and the bombings were always carried out by trusted proxies — normally a branch of Hezbollah. Iran’s fingerprints were always concealed beneath one or more layers of disguise.

Iran has never conducted — or apparently even attempted — an assassination or a bombing inside the US. And it is difficult to believe that they would rely on a non-Islamic criminal gang to carry out this most sensitive of all possible missions. In this instance, they allegedly relied on at least one amateur and a Mexican criminal drug gang that is known to be riddled with both Mexican and US intelligence agents.

Whatever else may be Iran’s failings, they are not noted for utter disregard of the most basic intelligence tradecraft, e.g. discussing an ultra-covert operation on an open international line between Iran and the US. Yet that is what happened here.

Perhaps this operation is just as it appears. But at a minimum both the public and the Congress should demand more detailed evidence before taking any rash or irreversible action.

If Iran is really as stupid and as incompetent as this case implies, then perhaps they are their own worst enemy and not the clever and determined adversary that they are made out to be.

When I read this, my first reaction was to be skeptical as well. I mean, sure, Iran doesn’t like the US or Saudi Arabia. But what do they stand to gain by assassinating a Saudi Ambassador in the US? And is that worth whatever blowback would have come their way afterward? It doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me.

But the idea that the Obama administration is just making this up also seems irrational. For one thing, if they fabricated the story it probably wouldn’t seem quite so fake. That would just be sloppy. Beyond that, evidence that Iran was plotting an attack on US soil does nothing but strengthen the arguments of those in favor of military strikes on Iran. The opposite of Obama’s policy. Again, it’s a question of what they would stand to gain.

So I’m more inclined at this point to say that this is a thing that happened. In a post-Fast and Furious world, I’m pretty willing to err on the side of believing in bizarrely misguided secret plots.

Tagged: iran

Source: garysick

Stay Free

Did Iran launch a plot against the US? →